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孙子兵法
美国正准备对付俄罗斯和中国
by Manlio Dinucci
作者：曼利奥·迪努希
At first glance, it reads like the script for a Hollywood catastrophe
movie. And yet it's one of the scenarios that is actually being considered in
the official 2018 report by the Commision, tasked by the United States Congress
with studying the national defense strategy - « In 2019, on the basis of fake
news announcing atrocities committed against Russian citizens in Latvia,
Lithuania and Estonia, Russia invades these countries. While US and NATO forces
prepare to respond, Russia declares that an attack against its forces in these
countries would be viewed as an attack on Russia itself, and
considers a nuclear riposte. Russian submarines attack transatlantic optical
fibre cables, and Russian hackers cut the electrical networks in the USA, while
Russian military forces destroy US military and commercial satellites. The
major citites of the United States are paralysed, since the Internet and
cell-phones are rendered inoperative ».
乍一看，它读起来就像好莱坞灾难电影的剧本。然而，这是委员会2018年的官方报告中实际考虑的情况之一，美国国会授权研究国防战略——在2019年，根据虚假新闻宣布在拉脱维亚、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚对俄罗斯公民犯下的暴行，俄罗斯入侵这些国家。不尝试的当美国和北约部队准备作出反应时，俄罗斯宣布，对这些国家军队的攻击将被视为对俄罗斯本身的攻击，并认为有核反击。俄罗斯潜艇攻击跨大西洋的光纤电缆，俄罗斯黑客切断了美国的电网，而俄罗斯军队则摧毁了美国的军事和商业卫星。美国的主要城市陷入瘫痪，因为互联网和手机已经失效。
The bipartisan Committee, composed of six Republicans and six
Democrats, are looking at a similar scenario in Asia - in 2024, China stages a
surprise attack and occupies Taiwan, and the United States are unable to
intervene in a cost-effective manner, because Chinese military
capacities have continued to grow, while those of the USA have
stagnated due to insufficient military spending.
由六名共和党人和六名民主党人组成的两党委员会正在考虑亚洲的类似情况，即2024年，中国发动突然袭击，占领台湾，美国无法以成本效益高的方式进行干预，因为中国的军事能力继续增长，而美国的军事能力却因为军费开支不足而停滞不前。
« These scenarios –
explains the Commission - exemplify the fact that the security and the
well-being of the United States are in greater danger than they have been for
the last few decades ». Since the Second World War, « the United States have
guided the construction of a world of unusual prosperity, freedom and security.
This development, from which it has benefited enormously, has been made
possible by the unequalled military might of the United States ».
委员会解释说，这些情况表明，美国的安全和福祉比过去几十年更加危险。自第二次世界大战以来，美国一直主导建设一个异常繁荣、自由和安全的世界。美国无与伦比的军事力量使这一发展成为可能，美国从中受益匪浅。
For the moment, however, their military power - « the backbone of world
influence and the national security of the USA » - has eroded to a dangerous
level. This is due to the fact that « concurrent authoritarian
forces - especially China and Russia –
are in the process of seeking regional hegemony and the means with which to
project their power on an international scale ». This would be a tragedy of
unimaginable dimensions, but perhaps terrible –
warns the Commission – if the
United States should allow their own national interests to be compromised by a
lack of the will to make « hard choices and the necessary investments ». They
therefore propose an ulterior increase of US military spending
(which today is already equivalent to a quarter of the federal budget) of
between 3 and 5 % annually –
particularly to increase the deployment of US forces (submarines, strategic
bombers, long-range missiles) in the Indo-Pacific region, where « four or five
of our adversaries are active - China, North Korea, Russia and terrorist
groups, (the fifth being Iran) ».
然而，就目前而言，他们的军事实力——世界影响力和美国国家安全的支柱——已经侵蚀到了危险的程度。这是因为“并存的权威主义势力——特别是中国和俄罗斯——正在寻求区域霸权，以及如何将其权力投射到国际范围这一事实”。委员会警告说，如果美国缺乏做出艰难选择和必要投资的意愿，允许自己的国家利益受到损害，这将是一场难以想象的悲剧，甚至也许是可怕的。因此，他们建议进一步增加美国每年3%至5%的军事开支（目前已经相当于联邦预算的四分之一），特别是增加美国在印度-太平洋地区的部队（潜艇、战略轰炸机、远程导弹）的部署。中国、朝鲜、俄罗斯和恐怖组织、（第五个是伊朗）在这些地区很活跃。
The strategic vision which emerges from the Congressional report –
even more worrying when we note that the Commission is composed of equal
numbers of Republicans and Democrats –
leaves no room for doubt. The United States –
which, since 1945, has provoked wars causing between 20 and 30 million deaths
(plus the hundreds of millions caused by the indirect effects of these wars) to
« guide the construction of a world of unusual prosperity, freedom and
security, from which it has benefitted enormously » is now preparing to do
anything necessary to maintain its « unequalled military power » upon which
their empire is founded, but which is now beginning to crumble with the
emergence of a multipolar world.
国会报告中提出的战略构想——当我们注意到委员会由同等数量的共和党人和民主党人组成的时候，更加令人担忧——毫无疑问。自1945年以来，美国一直挑起战争，造成2000万至3000万人死亡（加上这些战争的间接影响造成的数亿人死亡），以此来“主导建设一个异常繁荣、自由和安全的世界，美国从中受益匪浅”，现在正准备采取一切必要措施，以便保持其无与伦比的军事实力，这是他们的帝国赖以建立的基础，但是随着多极世界的出现，这个力量现在开始崩溃。
For this purpose, the Congressional Commission is examining scenarios
of aggression against the United States, which are no more than the mirror
image of their own aggressive strategy, which runs the risk of dragging the
world into catastrophe.
为了这个目的，国会委员会正在研究侵略美国的情景，这些情景只不过是他们自己侵略战略的镜像，这种战略冒着将世界拖入灾难的危险。
il
manifesto, December 11, 2018
2018年12月11日
译文：珍珠
曼利奥·迪努希
地理学家和政治学家。 他最新的书：Laboratorio di geografia, Zanichelli 2014 ; Diario di viaggio, Zanichelli 2017 ; L’arte della guerra / Annali della strategia Usa/Nato 1990-2016, Zambon 2016, Guerra Nucleare. Il Giorno Prima 2017; Diario di guerra Asterios Editores 2018.
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