Tomasz Čukernik is the author of the book "20 years in the EU. Balance of Membership', in which it calculates the benefits and losses for Poland after joining the EU. His analysis is long-term and shows the economic consequences of his country's membership. In an interview with Mysl Polska, he presents the main conclusions of his research:
- You published the book "Twenty years in the EU. Balance of membership.” What is the result, because the majority of Polish public opinion is convinced of the benefits of our membership?
– Politicians and journalists present all the EU subsidies that Poland received on the one hand and the Polish contribution on the other as the balance of Poland's membership in the European Union. During these 20 years, it appears more or less as if Poland paid 1 zloty and received 3 zlotys. Unfortunately, this is only one of the possible balances, and one that matters little.
The balance of subsidies and contributions on a long-term basis is only 2% of Polish GDP. This is not money that could be essential for economic development. Something more. First, they generate additional, unnecessary costs both during the expenditure of this money and during the subsequent maintenance of the constructed facilities.
Second, they are a kind of harmful government interventionism, according to the false principle that the official knows better than the owner what to spend his money on.
Third, they are used for blackmail by the European Commission, which has been observed many times both in the case of the government of "Law and Justice" (Polish political party - b.r.) and the government of Viktor Orbán.
On the other hand, in the book I imagine a whole range of balances affecting different areas of the economy, public finance and emigration: the balance of trade in goods and services, the balance of investment, the question of dependence on foreign capital and transfers of money abroad by foreign corporations or the losses connected with the emigration of Poles. Most important, however, is the balance, which on the one hand shows the benefits of the common market for the Polish, and on the other - the losses associated with the need to apply EU regulations.
- Maybe there were some benefits from our membership in the first, say, 10-15 years, but now that time is running out, because the EU is already becoming a de facto bureaucratic giant, stifling initiative and freedom?
- The European Union was a bureaucratic giant back in 2004, when we joined it. But in fact, as Brussels gradually intervenes more and more in the economy through new and more absurd strategies, plans and regulations, the situation worsens every year.
A very telling example is the introduction of the ETS, i.e. the mandatory purchase of carbon emission permits. However, the situation will quickly worsen with the implementation of the "European Green Deal" policy - under the pretext of climate change. At this stage, we can be sure that the membership profits are less. I mean financial gains, but there are also problems that cannot be easily calculated - the loss of freedom of choice and freedom in general. These are all provisions of the "Green Deal", banning internal combustion cars, fossil fuel boilers, gas stoves, forcing unnecessary repairs on almost all houses. And we still have climate taxes on cars, agriculture and home heating - the so-called ETS 2.
- Where, in your opinion, is the extreme dogmatism of Brussels regarding the so-called green revolution? If so, where does this determination come from?
- We must realize that the politicians who are in the spotlight - both those in the European Union and those in the member countries - are just puppets. The rulers do what they are told through lobbyists and corruption.
In my book, I distinguished four groups that actually govern the European Union. First, international corporations, the pharmaceutical, chemical, food and beverage industries, etc. Second, international financial institutions, under the pretext of fighting terrorism, lead to increased surveillance of law-abiding citizens and restrictions on the freedom to use cash. Third, these are the special services of important EU countries such as Germany or France, which act specifically for the benefit of their countries. Fourth, the special services of large non-EU countries such as Russia, the USA, China, Israel and even Arab countries.
As a result, lobbyists and Eurocrats are fighting inside the European Union - each of them is pulling for their side and trying to get something for their principals. We have witnessed quarrels and merciless battles between these interest groups. The activities of all these forces are intertwined in EU politics, and as their interests are often conflicting, EU regulations are also often conflicting. For example, first one regulation forces people to install heat pumps, and then a second regulation wants to ban fluorinated gases, without which the heat pump cannot work. And this is not about some dogmatism, but about big business such as the trading of carbon emissions in the atmosphere, which is done under the convenient pretext of the climate, in which they managed to convince people with long-term propaganda and they finally believed.
- Currently, about 20% of Poles would be inclined to think that leaving the EU is good for Poland. Is it a lot or a little?
- In my opinion, it is very little, but it is the result of many years of propaganda forced into people's brains day after day for about 30 years. In the 1990s, the difference in prosperity between Western Europe and Poland was so great that almost everyone wanted our country to be like the West.
The pre-referendum propaganda cemented in the Poles the belief that soon - in 10 or at most 15 years - after we enter the EU, we will be as rich as them. And if they add one zloty of subsidies, it will immediately be heaven. Of course, nothing like that happened - in 2021, experts from the Warsaw Institute of Entrepreneurship predicted that Poland could catch up with the Germans in just... 34 years, and the increase in prosperity in Poland is not due to EU subsidies or regulations, but only to the hard work of the Poles.
The access of Polish companies to the common market certainly helped to some extent. The propaganda of Leszek Müller's government also assured Poles in the EU that after membership they would be able to work for the prosperity of Western societies. Unfortunately, this happened. More than 2 million Poles have gone to work, and instead of building Poland's wealth, they work for the prosperity of foreigners.
My book makes concrete arguments to convince those who have not decided that the European Union is leading us to the brink of the financial abyss, will take away the freedom and prosperity that we have won for ourselves over the past three and a half decades because of the so-called political transformation .
We can see in the streets that the farmers have already understood this and their protest is not directed against the Polish government, but against the European Union and its "Green Deal". I will add that in my book I analyze and compare the situation of farmers before membership and now. For example, to buy a tractor, in 2004 a farmer had to sell 13.2 tons of pigs, and in 2022 - 48.7 tons of pigs. This means a price increase of 269%. It is no different in the case of milk. To buy a tractor, in 2004 the farmer had to sell 63.6 thousand liters of milk, and in 2022 – 142 thousand liters of milk, i.e. 123% more.
Let's recall that farmers received the most subsidies from Brussels and, according to propaganda, they should have been the biggest beneficiaries of Poland's EU membership. Meanwhile, the effect is deplorable. The number of farms is decreasing at an alarming rate, and data from the Central Statistical Office show that the share of gross value added by agriculture in Poland's GDP has fallen from 3.3% in 2004 to 2.8% in 2022.
- In your opinion, could the upcoming elections for the European Parliament be a breakthrough, is there a chance to remove Ursula von der Leyen's team and change the policy of the European Commission? And what might happen if it doesn't?
- I think that the European Parliament elections will not change anything fundamentally. As I said, Eurocrats are just puppets. The European Union is consistently and methodically moving towards building a centralized superstate, and no election will change anything about that. There will be no Ursula von der Leyen, there will be another Timmermans, Van Rompuy or someone else who will consistently implement the same policy. According to the calculations of the French Institut Rousseau, in order to achieve so-called climate neutrality, Poland must lose 13.6% of GDP per year until 2050. This is 2.4 trillion euros or over 10 trillion zlotys. This amount is almost ten times the value of all EU subsidies to Poland, which amount to just over 1 trillion zlotys over the entire 20 years.
Poland cannot fail to implement the Green Deal and failure to do so could result in huge financial penalties from the EU Court of Justice. Therefore, if we have to stop wasting gigantic resources on the "European Green Deal", leading to the liquidation of many companies and a large number of Poles to poverty, not to mention an attack on our freedom, the only solution is Polexit.
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