Middle East Politics
Posted on 18/03/2020 by Elijah J Magnier
By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai
Following Iraqi president Barham Saleh’s nomination of Adnan al-Zarfi
(Zurufi or Zurfi) as the new Prime Minister, Iraq has entered a critical
stage. The Shia block is divided. The 30 days given to al-Zarfi to
nominate his cabinet will lead either to a quorum of the parliament recognising
his new cabinet and in consequences to a bloody future that could lead to
unrest and even partition of Iraq or absence of a quorum. Why did President
Saleh nominate al-Zarfi?
In 2018 Speaker Mohamad Halbousi proposed Barham Saleh as President. The
proposal was adopted by “Al-Fateh”, the largest Shia coalition, with the
agreement of the Sunni. Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani and US presidential envoy
Brett McGurk were against the nomination of Saleh. It was Iranian IRGC Major
General Qassem Soleimani who pushed for Barham Saleh to become president.
Saleh, upon his nomination, promised Soleimani to be “better than Mam Jalal”
(Uncle Jalal Talibani, one of Iran’s closest allies). Once Saleh was elected,
he was asked by the “Al-Fateh” coalition, to nominate Adel Abdel Mahdi as prime
minister, and he complied. One year later, Abdel Mahdi was asked by
the Marjaiya in Najaf to resign in response to street demonstrations demanding
reforms, necessary infrastructure and better job opportunities.
Soleimani met with Shia leaders who all agreed– with the exception of
Hadi al-Ameri, who wanted to be the Prime Minister of Iraq – to nominate Qusay
al-Suheil. Al-Fateh forwarded the name to President Barham Salih who refused to
appoint al-Suheil and went to Erbil for a few days, enough time for the street
to reject the nomination. It was Sayyed Moqtada al Sadr – who rejected the
nomination of al Suheil – who then contacted President Saleh and informed him
that he represented the largest coalition, called “Sairoon”. Saleh, who feared
Moqtada’s reaction, sent a letter to the parliament and the constitutional
court asking them to define the “largest coalition”. None managed to respond clearly to this request.
The Iraqi constitution’s definition of the “largest coalition” is
elastic and subject to interpretation. President Barham Saleh maliciously threw
this apple of discord between the parliament and the constitutional court. It
was Nuri al-Maliki who in 2010 introduced a new definition of “large coalition”
to beat Ayad Allawi, who had managed to gather 91 MPs and was eligible to form
a government. Al-Maliki formed a broad coalition after the MPs took their oaths
and established that he was leading the largest coalition, as defined by the
final alliances formed after the parliamentary elections, rather than by the
poll results.
President Salih told Soleimani that the Shia coalition was divided and
that he was not in a position to decide. At the same time, Salih accommodated
the Americans who saw that Soleimani’s candidates were failing to win
consensual approval. Iran’s Shia allies were effectively contributing to the
failure of Soleimani’s efforts to reach an agreement among Shia over a PM
nominee.
By forwarding his resignation on November 29, 2019, to President Salih,
Adil Abdel Mahdi made it clear he no longer wished return to power. On February
1, Salih nominated Mohamad Allawi on Moqtada al-Sadr’s demand. Moqtada was
given the leading role in choosing a candidate following the US assassination
of Soleimani at Baghdad’s airport. This leadership was agreed to in Tehran by
General Ismail Qaaani, who believed Moqtada should lead all groups because he
was the main instigator of the protests. Even if the people in the street no
longer welcomed Moqtada, he remained the only one capable of clearing the road
and allowing the formation of a new government. Iran’s priority was for the
parliament and the government to concentrate on the withdrawal of all foreign
forces, led by the US.
Mohammad Allawi failed to achieve a parliamentary quorum because he
behaved condescendingly towards some of the Shia, the Sunni and the Kurds.
Allawi believed that Moqtada’s support was sufficient and that all the other
groups and ethnicities would have to accept his choice of ministers. Allawi
presented his resignation to Salih on March 2.
According to article 73/3 of the Iraqi constitution, the sole authority
for nominating a prime minister belongs to the president, who has 15 days to
select a candidate. However, President Salih gave the Shia 15 days to choose a
candidate. A coalition of seven members representing all Shia groups was
formed—they presented 17 candidates. Three names were offered: Naim al-Suheil,
Mohamad al-Soudani and Adnan al-Zarfi. Naim al-Suheil received the most votes
but was rejected by Faleh al-Fayad.
Although al-Zarfi is a member of the al-Nasr party led by former PM
Haidar Abadi (al-Nasr was formed in 2018), Nuri al-Maliki pushed hard for
al-Zarfi (also a member of al-Da’wa party) and sent him to Beirut to convince
the Lebanese to bless his nomination. Iran was against the designation of a US
national (al-Zarfi holds a US passport). Confronted by Iran’s rejection,
Al-Maliki managed to convince Moqtada al-Sadr to nominate al-Zarfi. Al-Maliki
managed even if al-Zarfi was the one who fought against Jaish al-Mahdi – with
US support – in Najaf in 2004, persecuted Moqtada in the city and expelled him
to Baghdad. Moqtada al-Sadr – who recently refused any prime minister holding
dual nationality – put his signature on the agreed paper offered to Salih along
with Nuri al-Maliki, Haidar Abadi and Sayyed Ammar al-Hakim as per the newly
claimed “largest coalition”.
It was a golden opportunity for Salih, with the absence of Soleimani, to
please the Americans, the Kurds, the Sunni and a large group of Shia. Salih
used his constitutional authority to nominate al-Zarfi as a prime minister. It
will be a blow to Iran if al-Zarfi manages to form his government and present
it to the parliament. With the support of such a large coalition of
Shia-Sunni-Kurdish MPs, he will no doubt reach the necessary quorum.
One of the main reasons Moqtada al-Sadr supported al-Zarif (apart from
al-Zarif’s promise to satisfy Moqtada’s requests in the new cabinet) is the
birth of a new group called “Osbat al-Thaereen” (the “Movement of the
Revolutionary Association” – MRA). This group claimed twice its responsibility
for bombing al-Taji military base where the US and other members of the
coalition have a permanent presence. Sayyed Moqtada rejects any attacks on US
forces and prefers acting through diplomatic channels (via the parliament).
Many Iraqi groups close to Iran swore to seek the withdrawal of the US forces
mainly due to the Pentagon’s refusal to discuss a full removal of troops. The
US is only willing to relocate troops. Moreover, the US is reinforcing its
presence in crucial bases in Iraq (K1, Ayn al-Assad and Erbil) and is about to
bring the Patriot interception missile system to its bases in Iraq, without
Iraqi government consent.
If al-Zarfi manages to get parliament approval, he may seek to avoid any
withdrawal negotiations with the US. He would also merge Hashd al-Shaabi and
attempt to disarm the Iraqi groups close to Iran. But al-Zarfi is not in a
position to seek a change of the parliament’s decision related to the US
withdrawal. That issue will concern the newly elected parliament. However, al-Zarfi,
like any new prime minister, is expected to gather a large number of MPs in the
forthcoming parliamentary elections, enough to seek the prolonged presence of
the US forces in Iraq.
Osbat al-Thaereen warned the US forces in Iraq.
This scenario is only applicable if al-Zarfi manages to reach the
parliament in 30 days with a new cabinet and to retain his allies, notably the
Shia. Iran will do everything possible to make things difficult for al-Zarfi.
The ex-governor of Najaf was accused of burning the two Iranian consulates in
Karbala and Najaf last year and is expected to follow the path of his al-Nasr
coalition leader (former PM Abadi) in respecting US sanctions on Iran. That
would be devastating to Iran’s economy, already suffering from the harshest US
sanctions ever.
Al-Zarfi as prime minister will be a major blow to Iran and to those who
support its objectives and ideology in Iraq. The coronavirus will not keep Iran
away from the Iraqi theatre; Iran will not allow Iraq to fall under US control.
If al-Zarfi comes to power, the stability of Iraq will be shaken, and partition
will be back on the table. An era of instability can be expected in Mesopotamia
under an Iraqi prime minister considered to be an ally of the US, particularly following
the assassination of Qassem Soleimani.
Proofread by: C.G.B
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