Is World War Between the US and China Inevitable?

Is World War Between the US and China Inevitable?

By Insight History

Global Research, February 21, 2020

Insight History

Region: Asia, USA

Theme: History

The fast rise of China as a major power over the past few decades has led many to argue that world war between the US and China is a real possibility. Already, we have seen a trade war erupt between the two countries, with tariffs imposed in both directions. Although there was a positive development last month which potentially signals a move towards a form of détente, as the two countries signed ‘phase one’ of a trade agreement, this agreement is by no means comprehensive, leaving many unresolved issues that could potentially serve as points of conflict in the future. 

The Thucydides Trap

The major concern that world war could erupt between the two powerhouses stems from the fact that their relationship contains a historical dynamic which often leads to war: known as the Thucydides trap. This trap refers to the ancient Greek historian, Thucydides, who wrote that one of the main causes of the Peloponnesian war, which was fought between two alliances, one led by Athens and the other by Sparta, was that the “rise of Athens and fear that this installed in Sparta made war inevitable” (Allison 2018: xiv). The dangerous situation Thucydides outlined thousands of years ago has been used to refer to the explosive dynamic when a rising power threatens a ruling power (Allison 2018: xv). The Harvard Professor, Graham Allison, has used the Thucydides trap in the context of the Sino-US relationship, as a rising China is now challenging the position of the US in many respects.

The Thucydides’ Trap Project at Harvard has analysed the last 500 years of history, and found sixteen cases when a rising power has challenged a ruling power, with war ensuing in 12 instances (Allison 2018: 41). Some notable examples of the cases that resulted in war include the rise of Napoleonic France that challenged ruling British power in the late 18th, early 19th century, and the rise of Germany in the run-up to WWI, which led to war with the ruling power Britain and its allies (Allison 2018: 42).

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The Anglo-American Peaceful Transition of Power

In relation to the potential outcome of the relationship between the US and China, some parallels and deeper insights may be found if we look closer at one of the four instances where war did not erupt over the last five centuries: namely, when a rising America challenged and surpassed the power of the British Empire in the late 19th, early 20th century (Allison 2018: 42). Although there were periods where tensions were high between the two countries, with one instance being the Venezuelan dispute of 1895, the British gradually accepted and in some respects supported the rise of US power, with this often referred to as the Great Rapprochement. This rapprochement ultimately led to Britain and America fighting on the same, victorious side during WWI.

ERIC ZUESSE -- UK’s Tory Victory Likely to Bind U.S. & UK against Europe & Asia

UK’s Tory Victory Likely to Bind U.S. & UK against Europe & Asia

by Eric Zuesse

December 23, 2019

 

Huffington Post headlined on December 21st “I Left Increasingly Right-Wing Britain And Now I Don’t Know If I Will Ever Return Home”, but the young woman who wrote it seems to have had no idea of the deep international forces that — as she sadly noted — are driving ever-larger numbers of young Brits, like herself, to relocate to continental Europe. This is part of a long war against Russia that started in her own UK, then took over in the United States on 26 July 1945, and seems likely to intensify greatly in the future, and to propel UK itself even further into America’s anti-Russian orbit, while Europe will ultimately unify increasingly with the rest of the EurAsian continent — including with both Russia and China.

The U.S. Government has actually been behind all of this reorganization of the international political map (as will be documented here in the links to the present article).

The U.S. Government, by means of its coups, overthrew democratically elected progressive governments and replaced them with brutal fascist dictatorships in Thailand 1948, Iran 1953, Chile 1973, Honduras 2009, and Ukraine 2014, just to mention a few U.S.-hired coups; and, now — with the December 12th Tory landslide and resultant inevitability of Brexit — the UK (America’s former colonizer) will itself become just another American colony. Here is how all of this is happening:

On December 14th, CNBC headlined “US isn’t weaponizing the dollar; sanctions are the alternative to war, Mnuchin says” and reported enormously important news, regarding the strategy that the U.S. Government has increasingly been using ever since, in 2012, it imposed (on fraudulent grounds) the Magnitsky Act sanctions against Russia, and subsequently imposed the many other sanctions regimens used against nations that are either allied with or merely friendly toward Russia. That article also discussed the international alliances which will be involved in a military World War III if this preliminary stage of global warfare (the sanctions-phase) won’t produce the capitulation of Russia and of China, but instead an outright military war becomes resorted-to.

Vladimir Platov -- US Intensifies Struggle Over Central Asia

23.12.2019 Author: Vladimir Platov

US Intensifies Struggle Over Central Asia

Column: Politics

Region: Central Asia

The rich natural resources of Central Asia have long been stirring the appetite of foreign nations, especially the US, which has recently intensified its activity in the region. Washington’s primary goal is to sideline Russia, as well as China, its main rival, in order to secure a monopoly in Central Asia, not only over the economic relations in the region, but over the military and political spheres as well.

Senior US officials are frequent guests in Central Asia. This year, Washington initiated a significant rotation of US ambassadors in Central Asian countries. And the latest diplomatic appointments of the White House draw attention to the fact that most of the new ambassadors are people with significant experience in military strategy and in staging coups d’états. These actions from Washington’s side indicate that the United States strives for secure long-term political and military influence in Central Asia, which is of crucial importance from a geopolitical point of view. The US expects that this will put both Russia and Iran into a difficult position, making it much easier to exert pressure on these countries.

Having maintained military presence in Afghanistan, the United States continues to actively strengthen its position in Central Asia, all but openly demonstrating that if the authorities of the Central Asian nations remain incompliant, they will face serious consequences. In this regard, it isn’t surprising that the US launched an active propaganda campaign, declaring that their departure from the region would entail a surge of extremism and terrorism. The US claims that only the American ‘military umbrella’ can rid the region of these threats. It seems like a warning to the leaderships of the nations: they must either agree to keep US military presence or bear the unpleasant aftermath.

LARRY ROMANOFF -- How Does China Evaluate and Choose its Leaders? Understanding China’s University System

How Does China Evaluate and Choose its Leaders? Understanding China’s University System

By Larry Romanoff

Global Research, November 23, 2019

Region: Asia

Theme: History

Many Westerners have at least a dim awareness of China’s Gaokao, the system of annual university entrance examinations, taken by about 10 million students each year. This set of examinations is quite stiff and perhaps even harsh, covering many subjects and occupying three days. The tests require broad understanding, deep knowledge and high intelligence, if one is to do well. These examinations are entirely merit-based and favoritism is impossible. Students who produce the highest grades in these examinations are in the top 1% of a pool of 1.5 billion people.

Few Westerners are aware that China also has a system of bar examinations which every graduate lawyer must pass in order to practice law in China. These are even more severe, requiring not only high intelligence but deep knowledge of the laws and a broad understanding of all matters legal, these exams being so difficult that many refuse to even attempt them. Of about 250,000 graduate lawyers who sit the exam, only about 20,000 will pass and obtain qualifications to actually practice law in China. If you meet a Chinese lawyer, you can be assured you are dealing with someone from top 1% of that same pool of 1.5 billion people.

I mention these two items only to introduce a third – the Civil Service Examinations.

The Imperial civil service examinations were designed many centuries ago to select the best administrative officials for the state’s bureaucracy. They lasted as long as 72 hours, and required a great depth and breadth of knowledge to pass. It was an eminently fair system in that the exam itself had no qualifications. Almost anyone, even from the least educated family in the poorest town, could sit the exam and, if that person did well enough, he or she could join the civil service and potentially rise to the top. The modern civil service examination system evolved from the imperial one, and today millions of graduates write these each year. They are extremely difficult. Of perhaps two million candidates only about 10,000 will get a pass. And that pass doesn’t get you a job; all it gets you is an interview.

When you meet some who has entered the civil service in China’s central government, you can rest assured you are speaking to a person who is not only exceptionally well educated and astonishingly knowledgeable on a broad range of national issues, but is in the top 0.1% of a pool of 1.5 billion people. China’s government officials are all highly-educated and trained engineers, economists, sociologists, scientists, often at a Ph.D. level. We should here consider that the Chinese generally score about 10% higher on standard IQ tests than do Caucasian Westerners. When we couple this with the Chinese process of weeding out all but the top 0.1% from consideration, and add further the prospect of doing the weeding from a pool of 1.5 billion people, you might expect the individuals in China’s Central Government to be rather better qualified than those of most other countries. And they are.

And the examination is only the beginning of 30 to 40 years of an accumulation of the knowledge and experience necessary to become a member of China’s Central Government, the top 1% of this tiny group then forming the Politburo and one of these few becoming China’s President. These people who have passed the civil service examinations and will become the senior officials and civil servants in China’s national government, have entered a lifelong career in a formidable meritocracy where promotion and responsibility can be obtained only by demonstrated ability.

There are some who will tell you that family connections in China can produce a government job for some favored son, a claim that may be true for minor positions at a local level, though extremely difficult beyond that and impossible at the national level. No amount of connections will move anyone into senior positions or to the top of decision-making power, those places reserved for persons of deep experience and proven ability. It is also noteworthy that family wealth and influence plays no part in these appointments. Of China’s highest ruling body, the 25-member Politburo, only seven came from any background of wealth or power. The remainder, including China’s President and Prime Minister, came from backgrounds that offered no special advantages and rose to the top based on merit alone.

Larry Romanoff -- The History of Hong Kong, Britain’s Colonial Legacy. Fast Forward to 2019

The History of Hong Kong, Britain’s Colonial Legacy. Fast Forward to 2019

By Larry Romanoff

Global Research, October 13, 2019

Region: Asia

Theme: History

The recent history of Hong Kong doesn’t begin where most Westerners might imagine. It began with the Rothschild’s British East India Company that existed from the early 1700s to nearly 1900, when Rothschild conceived the idea of inflicting opium onto China. The plans had been well-made, with approval from the top. Rothschild had the franchise for growing the opium and David Sassoon received from Queen Victoria herself, the exclusive franchise for distributing the drug in China.

The reason Hong Kong was seized by England, on orders of Queen Victoria, was that Sassoon needed a logistics, warehousing, and distribution base for his opium operations. Similarly, the founding of HSBC, an event requiring permission of the monarch, was for the handling and laundering of Sassoon’s drug money, an expertise in which the bank still specialises today. The standard narrative tells us the HSBC was founded by Scotsman Sir Thomas Sutherland, who wanted a bank operating on “sound Scottish banking principles”, but that’s historical Photoshopping. I don’t know who Sutherland was, but, if he existed at all, he quickly disappeared and his name appears nowhere in a list of directors, executives or officers. The HSBC was never a British or Scottish bank, and it never was and certainly is not now a “Chinese bank”. It was always a Jewish bank and David Sassoon was the Chairman of the Board from its founding. I have copies of the original documents.

Most everything in Hong Kong today has its origin in opium trafficking, in one way or another. Even the famous Peninsula Hotel is owned by the Kadoorie family, one of the famous five families involved in China’s opium trade. And thus began China’s “century of humiliation” and the origins of modern Hong Kong. I now want to digress for a moment to make an important point.

The Americans’ first major attempt at colonisation was with their invasion of the Philippines, after which they forced their language onto that nation and immediately followed with a carefully-chosen selection of false American history, literature and propaganda. They spent decades and countless millions of hours in determining the best way to propagandise an entire nation of people to forget their own past, venerate their present colonial status, and learn to worship the Americans. The same Americans then destroyed and rewrote all Philippine domestic history books to erase from consciousness that nation’s heroes, traditions, cultures, and hopes of freedom from American imperialism. They tried to colonise the souls of the Philippine people, and failed, leaving the country today with almost no culture or traditions, no domestic products (which are a crucial part of a nation’s culture), and having lost all sense of a civilisation.