4D CHESS IN AFGHANISTAN TO TRAP CHINA?

Is the US withdrawal from Afghanistan a trap for China? Here’s a quick analysis on that possible 4D chess move.

Afghanistan has been the deadliest vortex for imperial/foreign armies for many centuries. And it was the perfect trap that America set for the Soviet Union in the 1980s. Contrary to the mainstream narrative, the USSR did not “invade” Afghanistan. As Brzezinski admitted in the 1990s, the U.S. wanted to create a “Vietnam for the USSR” — an unwinnable and humiliating war. Thus, the U.S. set up camps in Pakistan and armed/trained fundamentalist Afghan tribes. When these insurgents became intolerable, the Afghan government sought help from Russia, which had invested a lot of money in Afghanistan in the previous three decades.

Now, the U.S. may be trying the same playbook in Afghanistan. Only, this time, the target is China.

It is guaranteed that the Taliban is going to take over Afghanistan. Already, most of the country is under partial or full Taliban control. So, what happens when the Taliban rules the country? A jihadist paradise right on China’s border. And the Taliban have gotten very sophisticated as well.

Militants could sneak into Xinjiang or even attack Chinese-built infrastructure in Xinjiang or Pakistan.

Also, there are about 20,000 Uyghur militants in Syria. They have been fighting alongside of Al Qaeda and ISIS over the last seven years. These war-hardened and experienced fighters would love to come to Afghanistan and seek revenge against China.

How long can China stay neutral?

 

Imagine China invading and bombing a Muslim country. First, it will be the end of China’s narrative about “peaceful rise” and claims such as “We haven’t waged a war in 40 years.”

Second, it will be a PR nightmare for China, especially in the Islamic world. It will be Genocide 2.0. Western media will be making up horror stories every day. The NY Times and BBC will be publishing photos of children killed by Chinese bombs every day.

Perhaps Xi Jinping will make a grand deal with the Taliban and avoid this geopolitical trap. However, if China’s BRI trains or CPEC projects get attacked by terrorists, Xi will be forced to take actions to please his ultra-nationalist base at home.