Turkey,
So Much We Aren’t Being Told
Despite
every effort to mediate over the increase in violence in Idlib, it has become
clear that Turkey’s root intentions are to retain, or attempt to retain, Syrian
territory it has long coveted.
To
do this, Turkey, as the other Sochi Agreement partners, Iran and Russia, see
it, has failed to keep its word. Turkey has clearly failed to separate
terrorists recognized as such, though supported openly by the West, from the
terrorists it supports. What are we saying?
“Sochi”
never stood on strong ground as long as it humored Erdogan by allowing him to
continue war on Syria. Sochi was intended to be a process, one that has now
clearly failed, unless, of course, an unexpected de-escalation can be brought
about.
But
Turkey has a side as well and is now choosing to blame Iran for the
deterioration in events, events that of mid-February 2020 shows that despite
Turkey’s military intervention, the Syrian Arab Army, with aid by Iranian
ground forces and Russia’s Aerospace capability, is soundly defeating all
terrorist groups.
From
Anadolou Agency, an Istanbul based news agency that can be said to represent
Turkish interests:
“Following
the Arab spring, the historical competition between Iran and Turkey has gained
momentum.
While
Turkey is supporting grassroots movements in the region within the framework of
stable peace and democratization vision, Iran is making use of the lack of
authority by reorganizing proxy powers like Hezbollah, utilizing differences
between sects, thus creating its own faithful Shiite militia forces.
In
this process, the two countries have different visions for the Middle East and
created more tension in relations.
Turkey’s
vision of regional development and integration is pitched against Iran’s
regional strategy prioritizing geopolitical wins. The most important ground for
this conflict has become Syria.
In
terms of the Syrian civil war, Iran has stood against Turkey from the very
beginning and placed more than 80 Shiite militias in Syria. Not once reacting
to Israel’s hundreds of air attacks in the south of the country, Tehran was
aggressively against Turkey-backed Syrian National Army on the northern front.
Ignoring
Ankara’s concerns in the fight against terrorism during Operation Peace Spring,
Tehran is now setting its Shiite militias in the field in motion against
Turkey, who is actively endeavoring to prevent a humanitarian crisis.
Following
Russia’s support for Turkey after the July 15 coup attempt, Ankara and Moscow
have been in a process of convergence policy.
The
two countries have embraced the “win-win” approach rather than zero-sum
competition in Syria. Instead of conflict, they have now decided to cooperate.
Not
having played a role in Ankara-Moscow convergence policies specifically about
the issue of Syria, Tehran had to include itself in this process later.
However, despite all of these efforts for collaboration, Russia’s and
especially Iran’s aims in Syria have started to conflict with Turkey’s national
interests. Upon attacks in Idlib, this conflict is now for the plain eye to
see. While at this point Russia shows from time to time that it is open for
negotiations if necessary and Assad is not irreplaceable, Iran equates Assad’s
survival to its own now.”
What
we can see here, clearly, is that Turkey is prepared to come to terms, at some
point with Russia. What is also clear is that continual statements from Russia
making clear their intent to back Syria until 100% of territory is retaken from
terrorist control, are not being listened to.
Were
one to look at the situation, on the ground in Syria, at the time of writing,
Iran is moving significant forces into the region including IRGC units.
Iran
is deeply resentful of the US and the assassination of Soleimani, particularly
since the New York Times article that has made the actions on the part of the
US so much more serious than simply the murder of a high-ranking perceived
enemy. From the New York Times, February 14, 2020:
“Washington
ordered the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani to sabotage
de-escalation talks between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
following a report by Israel’s Mossad spy agency, according to the New York
Times.
The
paper reported on Thursday that General Soleimani had been arranging talks in
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates in order to de-escalate tensions with
Tehran.
The
Times wrote that the talks happened after Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are
central to the Trump administration’s so-called regional alliance seeking to
pressure Iran, began to question the efficiency of Washington’s anti-Iran
campaign.
According
to the report, one such meeting took place last September in Abu Dhabi, the capital
of the United Arab Emirates where a plane carrying “senior Iranian officials”
landed for talks.
News
of the meeting, which reached Washington only after it was notified by reports
from American spy agencies, “set off alarms inside the White House”, according
to the report. The report added that a similar mediation attempt, also arranged
by Gen. Soleimani, was underway between Tehran and Riyadh using Iraqi and
Pakistani intermediaries.
The
report wrote that the developments had greatly concerned Israel, which had been
trying to push the Trump administration to exert more pressure on Tehran.
According
to the Times, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Mossad chief Yossi
Cohen on October during a trip to Israel where he was briefed on Iran’s
attempted de-escalation talks with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Cohen
warned Pompeo that Tehran was effectively on the verge of achieving its
“primary goal” of breaking up the so-called “anti-Iran” alliance. A few months
later in early January, General Soleimani was assassinated by Washington’s
order while on a formal visit to Baghdad.”
A
February 16, 2020 article by Jakov Kadmi, a Soviet born Israeli statesman and
figure among those opposed to Netanyahu’s policies, was telling. Kadmi is clear
on one thing, though Israel is staying out of the conflict in Idlib, Israel
sees it as a red line having a Turkish backed regime in Damascus.
Kedmi,
who has a long history in clandestine operations, has perhaps the clearest
argument thus far, most likely due to his position, “well back from the table.”
“Now
in Idlib is the largest group of terrorists, and Turkey supports them. Without
the support of Erdogan, they would have long been destroyed. Turkey has always
had claims to the northern territories of Syria.
Turkey
now has impudent rhetoric. Turks deliver weapons to terrorists in Idlib, they
protect their remains, not only that, they also sent Turkish troops there.
Why
is the Idlib region so important, because it is from there that the constant
terrorist attacks on the Syrian troops are carried out and there can be no
peace in Syria without the liquidation of this group.
Since
Aleppo is nearby, it is constantly subjected to attacks by the Isis, moreover,
attacks from terrorists launching drones at the Khmeimim base come from there,
and this is a threat to the Russian military group.
Russia
is tired of all this; the Turks are not doing anything to curb terrorists. On
the other hand, Idlib is Syrian territory and why Russia should restrain Syrian
forces? Turkey is preventing today from establishing stability and order in
Syria.
In
this situation, Russia has only one way out to pacify this Turkish Sultan –
this is the use of force, other options simply do not exist. Aside, Russia can
no longer sit.
Things
can go so far that Russia can deliver an ultimatum to Turkey, if Turkey uses
artillery when the Syrian forces attack terrorists, it will be suppressed by
the airborne forces, and if Turkey takes off planes they will be shot down.
For
Russia, peace in Syria is important, since in the future there will be two Russian
bases in this country, without which Russia will no longer be able to ensure
security in the Black Sea.
So,
Russia will support the Syrian troops in Idlib so that the Turks do not speak
and threaten there, Russia has no other choice.”
There
is yet a more sinister view of events that ties Erdogan’s actions to broader
issues both internally for Turkey and failing relations and broken promise
involving Europe.
The
material below is from an intelligence briefing held in Damascus, no public nor
press allowed, translated from Russian by VT’s Damascus bureau, the only media
invited:
“One
of Erdogan’s previously proclaimed principles – “zero problems with neighbors”
is suffering a terrible collapse. Turkey’s problems are growing from all sides,
both from Iran and from Syria, but most importantly, the position of the United
States and its “NATO allies” in the form of France is completely
incomprehensible.
France
is the “Rothschild Sword”. And the Rothschilds are not happy with Erdogan.
They
need control over the Israel-Egypt-Greece-EU gas pipeline, and the rest of
Libya’s hydrocarbon wealth, which is very necessary for the controllers of
Macron, for whom he worked at “the bank.”
Add
to this that, despite all the bravura statements about the “victories” of the
rebels, their losses are growing, and panic is emerging in the ranks. Moreover,
in the speeches of Erdogan, the word “hopeless” is always there to be heard,
perhaps through the silence and deception.
In
Syria, Erdogan faces a political impasse.
The
situation itself cannot be regulated by force of arms. Obviously, the Turkish
Mujahideen will not be able to win a decisive military victory, even if Turkey
will stand at their side. Neither the US nor the EU or NATO will support the
Turks and never allow the Mujahideen Erdogan to power in Damascus.
Israel
will never allow the Turkish army to go to its borders. This is a dead end.”
What
is clear here is that the Idlib conflict is being played out on a broader field
than amateur analysts have perceived. Thus, what we see is that Turkey is
chasing oil and gas, predictably, onshore in Idlib, the deposits recognized in
2012 and which, quite probably led to the fake “Arab Spring” moves against
Damascus, but also offshore in Cyprus and in Turkish ambitions in Libya. It is these
interests and Turkish military involvement in Libya that has raised the bar as
far as potential Turkish conflict with key EU members. More from the same
source:
“In
Libya, the situation is even worse, Erdogan does not seem to understand with
whom he contracted, Sarraj and his PNS, these are just puppets who do not
control the situation in the country.
There
is an inter-tribal war in the country, and the main violin is played by
Misurata fighters, which are essentially crypto-Jewish tribes, at one time
formally converted to Islam. In fact, they pursue only their own goals and
those of Israel, through its puppet Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt who supports
Haftar.” (text redacted)
This
adds to the mix Israel’s interest in becoming a major player in oil and gas,
not just in Mediterranean offshore deposits but in controlling pipelines and in
following America’s lead in hydrocarbon proxy wars. More:
“It
is completely unclear how Erdogan, who knocks on the door of the EU and wants
to become a member of the EU, wants to combine the challenge of all the “great
powers” with the desire to join the EU?
In
Europe, France and Greece, as well as reflecting (as yet) Italy, have put
together an anti-Turkish coalition. But what if Russia joins this coalition? Of
course, Russia absolutely does not need an alliance against Turkey, but it has
its own interests in Libya and Syria. Moreover, no one in Europe as a whole is
ready to see the new Ottoman Empire at their borders.”
With Britain leaving the EU and a new NATO bolstered
by a cartoonish American regime, the reality of a new Ottoman Empire takes on a
life of its own, an increasingly important life as Erdogan’s political position
domestically becomes increasingly tenuous as the Lira dissolves into
worthlessness.
The
Ottoman enclaves in the Balkans and the Gates of Vienna bring reality to a
Turkish sphere of influence that has already engulfed Macedonia and one that
sees new opportunities for expansion across the Bosporus. More:
“Erdogan
is and always has been Muslim Brotherhood, and that will never be allowed in
Europe. (Foreign Minister) Chavushoglu, the other day with irritation, spoke
about not understanding why Turkey cannot join the EU. He said that Turkey’s
patience is running out. And then what? Military operation against the EU?
But
this is for the sake of “joke – humor.” Chavushoglu promised the Europeans
rapid economic growth and generally prosperity under the Ottoman flag, but he
did not begin to link the actual military confrontation with Greece, Cyprus and
now France with the entry into the European Union.
The
EU is already experiencing hard times, and the appearance of neo – Ottomans in
its ranks will mean that the two Vienna battles were in vain. Turkey will begin
to crush the Bulgarians and Macedonians and Bosnians, and even the Greeks
themselves, moreover, by purely economic methods and economic expansion.
Erdogan
mistakenly believes that Europe will calmly observe neo-Ottoman revenge in the
Middle East. But he has no choice. Either successes in foreign policy,
supported by pro-Islamic slogans, or defeat in the elections.”
Conclusion
Turkey’s
military, though competent and robust, is incapable of extended military
operations within the Middle East. The “neighborhood” is far too dangerous,
particularly if Turkey is forced to operate armor without air cover, something
denied them in Syria.
A
policy of “dancing with terrorists” in Syria or turning to the US, the same
people who orchestrated the 2016 coup attempt against him, or, worse still,
verbal threats, has left Erdogan in an unenviable position.
What
is before him is “door number one,” where Erdogan can choose to work with
Russia to build a regional trade and economic sphere where military conflict
will no longer be an issue.
Gordon
Duff is a Marine combat veteran of the Vietnam War that has worked on veterans
and POW issues for decades and consulted with governments challenged by
security issues. He’s a senior editor and chairman of the board
of Veterans Today, especially for the online
magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
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