Dear friends,
Today is the Orthodox Eve of the Nativity, and tomorrow is the Orthodox Christmas so I will keep this one short.
  1. It appears that Russia and China blocked a US UNSC Resolution.  The message to Uncle Shmuel is simple: get out.  Needless to say, The Idiot-in-Chief and his malignant manatee are pissed.
  2. It also appears that Uncle Shmuel will initiate some kind of withdrawal.
  3. Why was Trump the Saker 2019 man of the year?
Let’s take them one by one.
First, it appears that no country outside “The Only Democracy in the Middle-East” is supporting the US.  Okay, the UK did, but after some hand twisting.  The rest of the EU are the usual spineless non-entities which cannot voice anything more cogent than “we appeal for restraint on all sides” or equally insipid canned sentences.  The truth is that the entire planet is horrified and does not know what to do to stop this insanity.
Second, we already know how Trump likes his withdrawals: he likes them partial, as was the case in Syria.  Besides, he is already issuing more dumb threats, but now against the Iraqis.  Good luck with that Donald.
Third, I wonder which part of
“I think I have been very clear about my total disappointment with Donald Trump. In fact, my disappointment has now turned to outright disgust. And if you ask me to make a list of what I have against Trump, it would be a long one. And yet, we have to always keep things in perspective. The choice was Trump or Clinton. With Clinton we had “war for sure” (probably against Russia, starting with a suicidal attempt to impose US-run no-fly zone over Syria). With Trump our choice was “war maybe, but maybe not”. And the fact that the US *almost* had a war with the DPRK, with Iran, with Syria (and, possibly, Russia!) and against Venezuela. And, let’s be honest again, this still might happen. But at the time of writing (Dec 3rd) Trump did not authorize a war. He came close to it in Syria, but neither “almost” nor “close to” are equivalent to “did it”.
Are hard to understand. But okay, I will explain it in simple terms.

With Hillary we had a quasi certain war with Russia.  That could mean up to 100 MILLION people dead in a few hours.  Her plan was, officially, to try to impose a no-fly zone over all of the Syrian airspace, including Tartus and Khmeimin.  Now, if you know ANYTHING at all about Russia, do you really expect the Russian Aerospace Forces to lay low and let that happen?
With Trump we did NOT have a war in 2019.  Yes, in 2020, we are now seeing a war between the US/Israel and Iran.  That is bad, really bad.  But compared to Russia-US war this is a minor and local event.  No, I am NOT belittling the horror of what is taking place.  But I do understand the difference between “bad” and “worse”. Some, apparently, don’t.  That is their problem, not mine.
One more thing: initially, I called the probability of war 80% to 20%.
Listening to the idiotic threats made by both Pompeo and Trump, I now have to raise it to 90% to 10%.  Sorry, but I have to be honest here, even if this is extremely distressing.
I am (temporarily) signing off to prepare for the feast of the Nativity of our Lord and Savoir Jesus-Christ.
Tomorrow morning, I will be in church, so expect your updates starting from mid to late afternoon.
Kind regards
The Saker