Self-Made Iran Crisis Goes from Bad to Worse

Self-Made Iran Crisis Goes from Bad to Worse Having unilaterally abandoned and violated the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal that has rolled-back Iran's nuclear activities, the Trump administration is now engaged in a series of escalations with Iran that could lead to another disastrous war in the Middle East. Though President Trump pulled back and reversed his own order to strike targets in Iran last week, the risk of conflict remains high. The Arms Control Association joined other pro-diplomacy organizations urging the Senate to vote on a bipartisan amendment from Sen. Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) to the National Defense Authorization bill, which would prohibit appropriated funds from being used for military action against Iran without explicit Congressional authorization. Our joint statement to the Senate argues that “The Trump Administration's current Iran policy has proven a disaster. Launching an unnecessary and unauthorized war would do a disservice to our troops and all Americans.” Daryl Kimball spoke with CBS Evening News' David Martin about Iran's threatened breach of low-enriched uranium limits, June 18, 2019.  We continue to deliver sober technical analysis of the proliferation risks of Iran’s moves to breach certain nuclear limits established by the JCPOA in retaliation to the Trump administration’s campaign to strangle the Iranian economy. As our nonproliferation policy director Kelsey Davenport and I wrote last week, “Iran’s decision to breach caps imposed by the accord is a troubling but predictable response to the Trump administration’s systematic campaign to deny Iran any benefit from the nuclear deal over the past year.” “While any violation of the deal is concerning, breaching the 300 kg limit on low-enriched uranium does not pose a near-term proliferation risk,” we note. But if the Europeans, Russia, and China do not take additional steps to secure sanctions relief envisioned by the deal, Iran will take actions that pose a more significant and immediate proliferation risk, such as increasing the level of uranium enrichment beyond the 3.67 percent cap set by the deal. Such steps would shorten the time it takes Iran to produce enough material for a nuclear weapon. Trump’s ongoing pressure campaign against Iran has decreased Iran’s incentives to talk and increased the chances it will retaliate. Compliance by all parties with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal remains the best path to prevent a new nuclear crisis and a war. Though the dark clouds are gathering, it may still be possible to save the 2015 nuclear deal. Doing so will require that the leaders in Tehran exercise restraint and continue to cooperate with IAEA inspectors. If the remaining parties can keep the JCPOA alive, then it may be possible for the next U.S. president to rejoin the JCPOA in 2021 and pursue a new round of talks on a follow-on agreement that addresses mutual issues of concern. With your continued support, we’ll continue to press forward. Please make a special donation today.   Thank you, Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director