PUTIN-ERDOGAN
MEETING: A STORM IS EXPECTED OVER THE “MOTHER OF ALL BATTLES” IN IDLIB; AYN AL
ARAB IS AT STAKE
Hezbollah in Saraqeb attacking at night to free the western part of the
city with special equipment.
The Turkish-Syrian battle is
the battle of the Kurds in Ayn al-Arab, Kobane.
Turkish
President Recep Tayyib Erdogan had decided to attack Russia, Iran and Syria
when he sent his army to Idlib and bombed Russian and Iranian allies on the
Idlib front. The Turkish president is feeling strong and believes he is holding
many good cards to play against his Russian counterpart President Vladimir
Putin. He trusts he is in a position to bomb Iran’s allies, despite the fact
that they hold armed drones, precision missiles and experienced Special Forces
that can hit Turkey very hard in the case of war.
The
conflict Erdogan envisions between Russia, Iran and Syria on one side and
Turkey on the other would suit the US and Israel. They would be happy to see
Presidents Putin and Erdogan sinking into the Syrian quagmire and Hezbollah
losing more men in the Levant. Negotiations, intense battles and attempts to
reshuffle the military situation are taking place behind the scenes. President
Erdogan is trying to improve his military position on the ground before his
meeting with President Putin in Moscow tomorrow Thursday- but to no avail.
Stormy negotiations can be expected.
President
Erdogan is not in a position to bang his fist on the table. At the time Russia
is receiving Erdogan a tweet by the Russian Foreign Ministry reminds him how
Russia defeated the Ottoman Empire and
forced it to sign the Treaty of San Stefano in March 1878 in Constantinople. It
has accused Erdogan of altering Syrian demography after occupying the Afrin
province and Tal Abyad, forcing the departure of over 350,000 Kurds and the
relocation of Turkmen militants and their families instead.
The
battle of Idlib follows many secret talks before the struggle and reflects
serious disagreements between Turkey on one side and Russia, Iran and Syria on
the other. Erdogan was ready to negotiate and clear the roads linking Damascus
and Aleppo (M5) and Aleppo and Latakia (M4) but in exchange, he asked for
concessions in north-east Syria that were rejected. Turkey tried to stop the
Syrian army and its allies and wanted to reach the gates of Aleppo. The current
battle for Idlib, the “mother of all battles”, follows many secret talks which
are the necessary context for understanding the current Turkish war on Syria
and Syria’s response. For the first time, Syria has dared to hit the Turkish
army directly- this has never happened before in the modern history of Syria.
Turkey
is more isolated than it has ever been. It has lost its privileged position
within the US by buying the S-400 and hosting the Turkstream pipeline selling
Russian gas to Europe. It has lost European respect by organising the transfer of
over 110,000 Syrian and other
nationalities’ refugees to the borders, allowing them to reach the borders with
Greece and refusing to close the Turkish borders to prevent the crossing. This
Turkish blackmail is not winning friends on the European continent, especially since
Erdogan is at the same time asking for more money to compensate the refugees’
presence in his country.
Arab countries are standing
with Syria against Turkey. Libya’s eastern-based government linked to General
Khalifa Haftar inaugurated the opening of its embassy in Damascus. Saudi Arabian, Egypt, and
the Emirates are showing solidarity with President Assad against the
Turkish-Qatari-Muslim Brotherhood alliance. A strong message was delivered
during the battle of Idlib where for the first time the Syrian and Turkish
armies face each other on the battlefield.
Erdogan
is also losing support from Putin by bombing the Syrian army, trained by
Russia, and damaging Syrian military effectiveness honed with Russian help.
When Moscow closed an eye to Turkey’s desire to avenge the killing of 33 Turkish soldiers and officers in south
Idlib, Erdogan responded with a disproportionate bombing which angered Russia
and the allies that suffered the most. In response, Iran threatened to hit back against more than a
thousand Turkish troops within the 14 Turkish observation points located within
liberated Syrian territory and guarded by Hezbollah and Iranian IRGC
forces.
Putin
is not completely losing his relationship with Erdogan, nor is it Russia’s
intention to declare war on Turkey. In recent days, during a private meeting
between Iranian and Turkish officials in Ankara, Iranian officers explained
that “Iran and Russia believe that any war with Turkey will serve the US and
Israel who would happily watch and contribute to fuelling the animosity between
both sides.” US special representative for Syria James Jeffery said his country
is ready to provide ammunition to Turkey in its Idlib
battle. However, US defence secretary Mark Esper ruled out US intervention in
favour of Turkey in Idlib.
In
Idlib, Turkey seems to have lost hope in the capacities of tens of thousands of
jihadists to hold the ground notwithstanding years of fortifications, tunnel
digging and building stronghold positions in the cities along the
Damascus-Aleppo (known as the M5) and Aleppo-Latakia (M4) roads. These
jihadists are made up of a mixture of foreign fighters from dozens of different
countries but mainly from the Tajik, Uighur, Turkmen and Arab jihadists
fighting under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (former ISIS, former al-Qaeda in Syria,
former al-Nusra) fighting under different banners: from al-Qaeda (Hurras al-Din),
Jund al-Aqsa to Ahrar al-Sham and many other names.
Hezbollah stopped an attack
aiming to take back el-Eiss and from it to reach the gates of south Aleppo last
Friday. The Turkish army bombed Hezbollah and Zul-fiqar brigade (Iranian IRGC,
Fatimiyoun and Zeinabiyoun) at Talhiya to allow jihadists supported by Turkey
to push into a corridor from Binnish and Taftanaz towards Talhiyah and from it
to Rasm al-Is, Rasm al-Saharij, El-Eis strategic hill until al-Hader.
Notwithstanding the Turkish intensive bombing to clear the road for jihadists
and the killing of nine Hezbollah and over 66 wounded, the jihadists did not
manage to get through. Hezbollah and their allies from the Zulfiqar brigades
held their ground and stopped the advance.
Russia grounded its Air Force for 48
hours after the killing of 36 Turkish soldiers and officers (officially Turkey
has declared 41 killed so far). The lack of air coverage surprised the allies
of Russia who have anti-air missiles but were not expecting the Russians to
abdicate their agreed role. Turkey managed to stop the Syrian army and its
allies’ advance for 48 hours. However, all areas lost to the Turks were
recovered within 48 hours. The battle of Saraqeb was the harshest. Hezbollah
and the Zulfiqar brigade never withdrew from the east side of the city, while
jihadists controlled the west side.
Following
the Turkish “disproportionate bombing”, as described by the Russian generals in
Syria, Moscow ordered its Air Force commanders to escort a dozen Syrian
anti-air batteries to the front line to protect Syrian troops from any Turkish
bombing. Syria brought the Tor-M1 and its Pantsir system and took measures to
reduce the casualties caused by the Turkish drones.
Syria
and its allies carried out (exceptional) night attacks liberating the strategic
city of Saraqeb and held their positions in it. Hezbollah and Iran tripled
the number of forces along the 70 km (M5 and M4) front against Turkey and its
jihadists. Russia made 27 air attacks against Saraqeb and resumed air
bombing in support of its allies.
Russia declared it could no
longer “guarantee the safety of the Turkish aviation in Syria after Damascus
shuts Idlib airspace”. The Syrian air defence systems downed
around 7 Turkish drones. The Syrian army is showing dauntless courage by
standing and bombing the Turkish military and fighting it face to face. Syrian
artillery pounded Turkish positions and killed close to a dozen Turkish soldiers
on the battlefield. President Bashar al-Assad’s decision to stand up to Turkey
is something not even his father Hafez dared to do.
This
is a response to Turkey’s killing and wounding of a large number of Syrian
soldiers. Syria has been at war for nine years and has withstood significant
losses. On the other hand, Turkey has one of the most prominent NATO armies
with the most advanced means. A small and reduced Syrian army has now managed
to kill Turkish soldiers on the battlefield, to destroy Turkish tanks and down
their drones.
Turkey
halted its direct bombing against Hezbollah and the Zulfiqar brigade. Iran and
Hezbollah threatened to hit Turkey if the bombing continued. Close to 2000
Turkish officers and soldiers are now positioned, under Hezbollah and Iran’s
‘protection’, in 14 observation posts inside Syrian controlled areas, where
they receive supplies locally. A meeting between the Iranians and the
Turkish army and an exchange of messages took place between Hezbollah and
Ankara, explaining that any clash between the two will bring the Levant and
Turkey into a comprehensive confrontation that no one could win. The
battle in Syria should not be against Turkey, and Erdogan needs to understand
that the presence of his troops on Syrian territory is not acceptable.
Moscow
moved its military police and special forces
into Saraqeb to draw a line on any possible Turkish intention to attack the
city again. The Turkish army attacks have yielded nothing, and the Syrian army
and its allies are gaining momentum and have the upper hand. What is pushing
Erdogan to fight with his own army alongside the jihadists for the control of
two roads which it had previously agreed to de-escalate and declare a
demilitarised zone in 2018?
According to decision-makers
in Syria, President Erdogan asked his Russian counterpart to allow his forces
to occupy an area 50 km deep in north-east Syria. At the start, Russia did not
react to the Turkish advance to replace the US forces who decided to limit its
presence in Syria to stealing Syrian oil, i.e. around the oil wells in
north-east Syria. When the US redeployed, Russia asked Turkey to halt its
operations in al-Hasaka and Raqqa provinces. Erdogan then lowered his request,
asked for a 30 km deep buffer zone.
Russia
has good ties with the Kurds and wants to see Syria united and all foreign
forces leaving Syria. Erdogan said he was ready to clear the M5 and M4 in
exchange for the control of Ayn al-Arab (Kobane). Putin refused and
agreed with Iran and Damascus to remove jihadists along the M5 and M4 by
military force. Erdogan felt he was cut out of the deal because his jihadists
did not hold their ground, and proved to be an incapable military force against
Syria and its allies. This is why the Turkish army was pushed into the battle,
supported by drones, F-16s, precision missiles and artillery. Today it is
fighting on behalf of the jihadists that, according to Sochi agreement, should
have been eliminated by Turkey more than a year ago.
Turkey
wants to bring back the deployment of forces on the ground to where they were
before the Idlib battle and is calling for the respect of the Astana agreement
but from a weaker position. In fact, it is too late for that; deals have a
short life in Syria! Ankara will have to accept the status quo and prepare to
lose Idlib without further concessions in the Kurdish area. This does not mean
Erdogan will accept and surrender without a fight all the Syrian territories he
has occupied without a fight. The Putin-Erdogan meeting will probably not end
all differences, and much may have to be postponed until the forthcoming
Putin-Erdogan-Rohani meeting this month in Tehran.
Erdogan
seems to have forgotten the help Putin and Rohani gave him during the
2016 failed coup-d’état. He is
showing recklessness and wrongly believes his potential partners are weak. The
Turkish president is prioritising his territory-expansion ambition over his
commercial and partnership relationship with Russia and Iran. The Turkish army
is grinding its teeth over Idlib. The Ottoman Sultan never defeated the Russian
Czar in the past and he certainly won’t succeed now in Syria…
Proofread
by: C.G.B. and Maurice Brasher
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